Estimation of COVID-19 cases in Brazil: mathematical modeling study
Palavras-chave:epidemiological monitoring, COVID-19, estimation, mathematical modeling
The objective was to describe a mathematical model to estimate cases by COVID-19 in Brazil in the short term and to identify the existence of forces to inhibit the spread of SARS-CoV2. Cases confirmed by COVID-19 in Brazil from March 16 to May 31, 2020 were used to develop a mathematical equation for estimating COVID-19 cases for up to 13 future days. Correction factors were calculated to identify whether there was an inhibition of the spread of infection in the country. The relative error and Pearson's correlation were analyzed to determine the model's performance. Six models were developed (gross, S1, S2, S3, S4 and corrected). The corrected model showed good adherence to the number of estimated and observed cases. Eight correction factors were calculated, which increased during the study period. The increase in correction factors expressed the loss of the inhibition force of interventions implemented in the country for the prevention and control of infection. The proposed mathematical model proved to be viable and feasible for implementation in epidemiological surveillance services.
BRASIL. Painel CoronavÃrus. [citado 15 jun 20120]. DisponÃvel em: https://covid.saude.gov.br/
Brasil. Lei nÂº 13.979, de 6 de fevereiro de 2020. DispÃµe sobre as medidas para enfrentamento da emergÃªncia de saÃºde pÃºblica de importÃ¢ncia internacional decorrente do coronavÃrus responsÃ¡vel pelo surto de 2019. [citado 15 jun 20120] DisponÃvel em: http://www.in.gov.br/web/dou/-/lei-n-13.979-de-6-de-fevereiro-de-2020-242078735
Ivorra B, FerrÃ¡ndez MR, Vela-PÃ©rez M, Ramos AM. Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul. 2020;88:105303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2020.105303
Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic Underlying Principles and Value of Projections. JAMA. 2020;323:1893-4. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6585
World Health Organization (WHO). Rolling updates on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Updated 4 May 2020. [citado 15 jun 20120]. DisponÃvel em: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen
A revista se reserva o direito de fazer alterações nas regras originais, na ortografia e na ordem gramatical, a fim de manter o idioma de culto padrão, respeitando, no entanto, o estilo dos autores. Os artigos publicados são de propriedade da revista Scientific Electronic Archives, tornando-se sua reimpressão total ou parcial, sujeitos à autorização expressa da direção da revista. A fonte original da publicação deve ser mantida. Os originais não serão devolvidos aos autores. As opiniões expressas pelos autores dos artigos são de sua exclusiva responsabilidade.
The journal reserves the right to make changes to the original rules, spelling and grammatical order, in order to keep the language of worship default, respecting, however, the style of the authors. Articles published are the property of Scientific Electronic Archives magazine, becoming its total or partial reprint, subject to the express authorization of the direction of the journal. The original source of publication should be retained. The originals will not be returned to the authors. Opinions expressed by authors of articles are solely your responsibility.
This journal uses the License Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.