Estimation of COVID-19 cases in Brazil: mathematical modeling study

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36560/14220211206

Palavras-chave:

epidemiological monitoring, COVID-19, estimation, mathematical modeling

Resumo

The objective was to describe a mathematical model to estimate cases by COVID-19 in Brazil in the short term and to identify the existence of forces to inhibit the spread of SARS-CoV2. Cases confirmed by COVID-19 in Brazil from March 16 to May 31, 2020 were used to develop a mathematical equation for estimating COVID-19 cases for up to 13 future days. Correction factors were calculated to identify whether there was an inhibition of the spread of infection in the country. The relative error and Pearson's correlation were analyzed to determine the model's performance. Six models were developed (gross, S1, S2, S3, S4 and corrected). The corrected model showed good adherence to the number of estimated and observed cases. Eight correction factors were calculated, which increased during the study period. The increase in correction factors expressed the loss of the inhibition force of interventions implemented in the country for the prevention and control of infection. The proposed mathematical model proved to be viable and feasible for implementation in epidemiological surveillance services.

Referências

BRASIL. Painel Coronavírus. [citado 15 jun 20120]. Disponível em: https://covid.saude.gov.br/

Brasil. Lei nº 13.979, de 6 de fevereiro de 2020. Dispõe sobre as medidas para enfrentamento da emergência de saúde pública de importância internacional decorrente do coronavírus responsável pelo surto de 2019. [citado 15 jun 20120] Disponível em: http://www.in.gov.br/web/dou/-/lei-n-13.979-de-6-de-fevereiro-de-2020-242078735

Ivorra B, Ferrández MR, Vela-Pérez M, Ramos AM. Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul. 2020;88:105303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2020.105303

Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic Underlying Principles and Value of Projections. JAMA. 2020;323:1893-4. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6585

World Health Organization (WHO). Rolling updates on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Updated 4 May 2020. [citado 15 jun 20120]. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen

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Publicado

2021-01-26

Como Citar

Sheng, L. Y., & Sartori, A. L. (2021). Estimation of COVID-19 cases in Brazil: mathematical modeling study. Scientific Electronic Archives, 14(2), 70–73. https://doi.org/10.36560/14220211206

Edição

Seção

Mathematical Sciences / Engineering